Reimagining the Himalayan Rivers: China’s Role in Transboundary Water Diplomacy and the Construction of Peace

By Akshat Agrawal | June 2025

Abstract

This paper explores the geopolitics of transboundary Himalayan river systems, focusing on China’s upstream dominance and its historical-civilizational positioning as a potential water steward. Drawing parallels with the Silk Road era under the Han Dynasty, the paper argues that China’s 21st-century hydrological posture—if redirected from strategic competition to ecological cooperation—can redefine Asia’s geopolitical landscape.

1. Introduction

The Himalayas are home to the sources of Asia’s greatest rivers—the Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, and Sutlej, among others. These rivers nourish over 2 billion people across Pakistan, India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. With climate change accelerating glacial melt and monsoon volatility, these rivers are not just environmental assets—they are political flashpoints.

2. China as the Upstream Superpower

Geographically, China commands the Tibetan Plateau, which feeds most of these rivers. Its ability to dam, divert, and control water flow gives it asymmetric leverage. For example, the Zangmu Dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) has raised concerns in India and Bangladesh. China has built over 87,000 dams nationally and continues to export hydropower to Southeast Asia. (Xu et al., 2021)

But China's past may hint at a different future. During the Han Dynasty, China connected with Central Asia through infrastructure and diplomacy. Could it now use water to create a new Silk Route of peace?

3. Water Wars or Water Silk Roads?

Flashpoint River	Stakeholders	Conflict	Resolution Potential
Brahmaputra	China, India, Bangladesh	Dams in Tibet, data opacity	Multilateral real-time data-sharing & basin-wide treaty
Indus	India, Pakistan, China	Treaty fragility, glacier threats	Modernized Indus Waters Treaty with climate clauses
Mekong	China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam	Upstream dams affecting fisheries	Joint ecological monitoring under Mekong River Commission

4. The Civilizational Lens

The Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE) facilitated long-distance trade through roads, garrisons, and cultural exchange. It prioritized stable peripheries and sustainable infrastructure. China today can reinterpret this legacy through:

• Climate-resilient hydrological infrastructure
• Transboundary ecological governance mechanisms
• Glacier and monsoon pattern monitoring using AI
• Asian Water Corridor linking Central, South, and Southeast Asia

Such efforts may reduce geopolitical tensions and demonstrate responsible superpower behavior. Recent initiatives like the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) are an early example (LMC Official Site).

5. Conclusion

The future of Asia will not only be shaped by trade and militaries but by its rivers. As climate shocks grow and regional rivalries simmer, China has a choice: it can weaponize water, or it can build bridges—literal and diplomatic. If it channels its hydrological advantage into collaborative water-sharing, it could emerge not as a coercive force, but as a builder of peace.

In echoing its Han Dynasty legacy, China might give the world a new Silk Route—not paved in silk or gold, but flowing with shared rivers and mutual survival.

References

1. Xu, J., et al. (2021). The Melting Himalayas: Cascading effects of climate change on water, biodiversity, and livelihoods. Energy Policy, 154, 112295. DOI
2. Gleick, P. H. (2014). Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6(3), 331–340. Link
3. Shah, M. (2020). The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in the Context of Climate Change. Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi.
4. Wolf, A. T. (1998). Conflict and Cooperation Along International Waterways. Water Policy, 1(2), 251–265.
5. Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism: https://www.lmcchina.org

This article is part of an ongoing research series on water diplomacy, ecological civilization, and China's role in global sustainability. For feedback or reprint permissions, contact the author via Substack or LinkedIn.